Fairly typical early spring weather is currently anticipated for the second week of this outlook period. The latest March 17, and day weather outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggest a good chance of normal to above-normal temperature and normal to above-normal precipitation for the region when averaged over the entire 9-day period March , Please visit www.
The most recent runs March 17, of the short-term day ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, do show some limited threat of scattered, mostly minor river flooding developing within the MARFC service area during the next few days. This threat is due to high confidence in a moderate-heavy rain event mainly Thursday into Friday March across much of the region, with expected rainfall of 0.
Once this short-term river flood threat passes, current longer-term river forecasts show a normal to below-normal threat of river flooding for most of the region during the next 30 days.
All future river flooding will now require heavy rainfall since much of the significant snow has now melted within the region. A significant rain event during the next two days could result in the development of some scattered, mostly minor river flooding during the next few days anywhere within the MARFC region. At the same time there is also a good chance that no river flooding will occur, and conversely a very small chance that isolated moderate river flooding could occur.
The exact location, extent and duration of heavy rainfall tomorrow and tomorrow night will determine if and where any river flooding may develop. Once this limited short-term river flood threat passes, the river flood potential will gradually return to normal, meaning all future river flooding will depend entirely upon the occurrence of heavy rainfall.
Only small pockets of significant snow remain within the MARFC region, so snowmelt will very soon be eliminated as a factor that can increase the potential for river flooding. River ice is done for this winter season. According to the latest March 9, U.
Drought Monitor droughtmonitor. However, assuming near-normal precipitation over the next few months, no water supply shortages are anticipated within the MARFC region through at least May, The river flood potential for the entire MARFC area of responsibility starts out as below average to average for the first week of this two-week outlook period - through the morning of Thursday, March This is due to high confidence in below-normal precipitation area wide for the first week, and only gradual snowmelt where snow still exists.
Then during the second week of this outlook period March the river flood potential increases to average to above average. This is because warmer weather is expected and thus more snowmelt, along with a more active weather pattern which could produce moderate or heavy periods of rain in some areas. During the second week the above-average river flood potential area includes portions of south-central NY, central and northeast PA, and northern NJ.
Flooding from earlier this week has ended and no river flooding is currently occurring at any forecast points within the MARFC service area.
During the last 30 days February 1 - March 2, observed precipitation across most of the MARFC region has been above normal to much-above normal. The exception has been far northern portions of the region where normal or even somewhat below-normal precipitation has been observed.
In this area precipitation amounts have been 1. Otherwise, most of the rest of the service area has received somewhat above-normal precipitation, or percent above normal. Total precipitation during the last 30 days has ranged from less than 2 inches in south-central NY to 7 inches on the Delmarva Peninsula.
As of this morning March 4, , generally continuous snow covers the ground across about 40 percent of the MARFC service area. The line that roughly separates snow from no snow runs approximately along and north of Interstate 80 in PA and NJ.
However in eastern PA the snow does extend further southward to near the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Some snow also exists in portions of the Appalachian Mountains.
The current extent of snow is fairly typical for early March, which is usually the time of winter when snow within the MARFC region is at its maximum extent and contains the most water. Except for light-moderate lake effect snow in the usual areas of NY, no significant snow is forecast for the next week or so. In this region snow depths this morning were generally in the inch range, with scattered greater depths.
Corresponding snow water equivalent values in this same region range generally from inches, again with locally higher values. Elsewhere where snow exists depths are generally inches, with up to about an inch of snow water equivalent. These conditions are about normal for early March. Currently the most river ice is found in streams and rivers in mainly upper portions of the Susquehanna and Delaware River Basins in NY and northern PA, which is pretty typical for early March.
The river ice is not being reported as unusually thick or extensive for this time of year, and is actually somewhat below normal. Ice jam flooding is unlikely with the amount of river ice that still exists, and little or no additional river ice formation is expected for the remainder of this winter season. Elsewhere, no river ice exists which is normal for this time of year. Highest flows compared to normal are across the southern two-thirds of the region, whereas near-normal streamflow conditions exist across the northern third.
The February 27, map seen at cpc. Visit www. South of this area, groundwater levels are above or much-above normal for early March. A dry spell is anticipated for most of the MARFC region during the first week of this outlook period. The dry spell will be most welcome across the southern half of the region where it has been unusually wet for quite some time, as evidenced by scattered river flooding that occurred there recently. There currently are no indications of any significant rain events for at least the first week of this outlook period, through next Wednesday, March 10, Seasonable temperatures early in the period will be followed by milder weather next week which will increase snowmelt where snow still exists.
Also in the second week of this outlook period a more active but still rather mild weather pattern may develop, with periods of moderate or heavy rain possible in some areas. The latest March 3, and day weather outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggest that both temperatures and precipitation may be above normal when averaged over the entire 9-day period March , The most recent runs March 4, of the short-term day ensemble river forecasts, which take into account anticipated future weather conditions including precipitation and temperatures, do show some threat of river flooding developing across northern portions of the service area during the second week of this outlook period.
The threat is due to a milder weather pattern developing, which will most likely melt some or much of the snow remaining within the MARFC service area. A more active weather pattern is also likely for the second week of this outlook period, which could result in periods of moderate to heavy rain in some areas, possibly accompanying or following the snowmelt. Current longer-term river forecasts also suggest a somewhat increased chance for river flooding compared to normal during the next 30 days, most notably in upper portions of the Susquehanna River Basin.
This is primarily due to the above-average snow conditions that currently exist in portions of NY and northern PA. After some flooding that occurred earlier this week across mostly the southern half of the region due to snowmelt combined with significant rainfall, the focus for potential river flooding during the next two weeks shifts further north where significant snow remains.
The good news is that there are currently no indications of any widespread heavy rain events for the first week of this outlook period. It is the second week of the period when warmer temperatures and the possibility of periods of moderate or heavy rain could result in some river flooding developing across mainly the northern half of the region. Still, heavy rain anywhere in the region could also cause river flooding to develop, including the south where it has been unusually wet.
As such, conditions will need to be monitored closely for the rest of this winter into early spring. It does seem unlikely that ice jam flooding will occur since river ice is not as extensive or thick as usual at this time, and new ice formation is unlikely. According to the latest March 2, U. The river flood potential during the next two weeks through March 4, is above average for late February across southern and eastern portions of the MARFC area of responsibility, and average elsewhere.
The line separating the two categories runs roughly from southeast NY southwestward into west-central PA. As of this afternoon Wednesday, February 17, minor flooding was occurring along a portion of the lower James River in VA. Flooding will end here this evening. In this area amounts have been Otherwise, most of the rest of the service area has received below-normal to normal precipitation, percent of average. The current snow cover extends somewhat further east than what is typical for mid February.
In addition, moderate amounts of new snow are expected across much of the MARFC service area during the next two days. Corresponding snow water equvialent values in this same region range generally from inches, with isolated values of 4. Snow depths in the remaining areas where snow exists are generally inches, with 0. These conditions are about normal for mid February.
But to repeat, moderate snowfall is expected across much of this region during the next two days. This is a fairly typical area for river ice to be observed in the second half of February. For more information contact us. We are Ayuda Hispana Insurance. Ayuda Hispana Insurance LLC was established in May with the purpose of providing insurance services and assistance to the Hispanic community in Houston in their own language. Get A Quote. Call: Home Flood Insurance In what seasons do floods occur?
In what seasons do floods occur? Flood seasons Floods are very common in many areas of the United States and can be frequent during certain times of the year in certain areas. Beginning of spring In early spring, areas near places that had received heavy snowfall during winter are at risk of flooding, such as areas at the foot of snow-laden mountains.
Spring and summer Seasonal thunderstorms during the spring and summer months bring heavy rain to many areas of the US and cause severe flooding. Summer and autumn Nearby coastal and inland areas can be affected by flooding during this time of year due to seasonal tropical storms. Next Post What does mobile home insurance cover? For example, in July , torrential rain seeded from what had been Hurricane Dolores triggered flooding in the deserts of Southern California, washing out a section of Interstate 10 east of Palm Springs.
Daily 13 Today. Flood Safety and Preparedness. By Jonathan Erdman June 10, At a Glance From late spring into summer, flash flooding is most frequent in the U. This is due to a combination of factors, including a slower jet stream and more humid air. Tropical cyclones can also play a major influence. Some of the key reasons for the annual increase in flash flooding from late spring into summer in the U. A home is surrounded by floodwater after torrential rains pounded Southeast Texas following Hurricane and Tropical Storm Harvey on Aug.
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